Public relations is tough to measure. Polls are one of the few sources are hard numbers you get to see.
If you're lucky enough to have a poll in your hot little hands, here are some tips on how to interpret -- and use -- the numbers.
1) Name Recognition
This isn't a specific question on any poll. Not really. It's implied, though.
A standard question on any poll is "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (name of person)?"
Say they asked this question about your state's governor, and the poll came back like this:
45 percent favorable
40 percent unfavorable
15 percent no opinion / don't know
It's probably not true that 15 percent of the population is doing their best Hamlet impression on how they feel about the state's governor. In fact, it's a good bet that this 15 percent isn't losing sleep at night while they wrestle with their conflicting feelings.
The more likely explanation is these people don't recognize the name of the governor or know enough to form an opinion, which is the functional equivalent, if you think about it.
So one way to read the poll is to say the governor has 85 percent name recognition, as a ballpark figure.
2) Are You Underwater?
A person, organization, or issue is underwater when their unfavorables are higher than their favorables.
In the hypothetical about the governor, 45 percent favorable minus 40 percent unfavorable means the governor is + 5 percent. That's above water.
3) Can You Weigh Intensity?
Many polls can give you an estimate of how deep feelings run about a person, issue or organization.
They'll ask not just whether you feel favorably or unfavorably about something, or whether your support or oppose an issue They'll do it as a continuum, like this:
- Strongly oppose
- Oppose
- Neutral
- Support
- Strongly support
Pollsters will usually add up the strongly negatives with the plain old negatives to give you a generic "No" total, and do the same thing with the strong positives and plain old positives to give you the "Yes" total.
It's worth looking at the details of the poll to see the breakdown, if they have it. You'll be able to tell if opposition is widespread but weak or if support is small but intense. It's worth knowing.
You'll often see presidential candidates, for example, whose numbers aren't just underwater, but swimming with the fishes. But if they have a strong core of intense supporters, they can win party primaries and caucuses, because the people who dislike them mostly belong to the other party while only the true believers show up for primaries and caucuses anyway.
Hard numbers from a poll can tell you where you're strong and where you're weak. Knowing that can help steer your strategy.
If you're support is small but intense, you need to reach out to a broader audience. If you're support is wide but shallow, you need to spend more time reaching out to supporters to turn them into stouter allies.