How did presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty come in third at the Ames Straw Poll -- and therefore drop out of the race -- while those who finished far behind him are still in the running?
It's all about managing expectations in the press.
Whoever frames the story wins the debate.
If you let your opponents or the press frame the story, that can set up an unwinnable contest.
But at first glance, what happened to Pawlenty in Iowa makes no sense.
Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, was one of the front-runners. A serious candidate. Coming in third seems like a much stronger showing than Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts who has long been seen as the candidate to beat.
Minnesota is next door to Iowa and the next best thing to home turf to Pawlenty, a serious contender for John McCain's vice presidential running mate in 2008.
The front-runner, Romney, barely registered at the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, home of the first caucus and therefore the starting gun of the 2012 race for the White House.
Yet nobody called on Romney to drop out.
Nobody expected Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain or Thaddeus McCotter to stop campaigning. (Yes, there is a member of Congress named Thaddeus McCotter running for president.)
That's because it's all about expectations.
Public figures aren't playing a game with set rules. It's not a foot race, where there's a clear winner and loser.
The press expected Pawlenty to do well. He lives in a neighboring state. He invested serious time and money in Iowa generally and the Ames Straw Poll specifically.
You have to buy tickets to vote in the straw poll. Those tickets cost $30 each. There's also a price for reserving space as a candidate, and it's not unknown for candidates to spend $1 million or more buying tickets for supporters, feeding them, bringing in live bands and generally going all out to win this straw poll.
Not that the straw poll actually matters, technically. Candidates get zero delegates for winning and zero delegates if they lose.
It's all about expectations. Winners are showing that they're strong in Iowa, that they can compete in a grass-roots caucus, and that's important to maintain buzz, national media attention and a flow of money from donors. Presidential races need that buzz and attention and money to survive.
Pawlenty dropped out because he bet his campaign on Iowa and it didn't work out. Romney got a pass for doing badly because he didn't officially compete in the straw poll and only got write-in votes. So the national press and political class didn't care about how well he did.
The press and punditocracy didn't even really care about the second place finisher, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), even though the winner -- U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minnesota) -- didn't beat him by much.
The press and chattering class set this up as a race between the two Minnesotans. That was the story. That was the contest within the contest.
The hard thing for the press wouldn't been if Paul had won the straw poll outright. That would muddle the story line and mess with their expectations.
Instead, Bachmann clearly beat Pawlenty in the race within the race. So even though he came in third and beat most of the field, he lost.